Bayesian Dynamic Linear Model with Adaptive Parameter Estimation for Short-Term Travel Speed Prediction

Table 1

Average prediction accuracy of the adaptive DLM in accident scenarios.

Measure metrics	Road Section	First-order DLM	Cubic spline smoothing DLM	Second-order DLM	AR(2)	HW Exp. Smoothing	One-step shift; predictor	Adaptive DLM
RMSE	3, 4 and 5	4.901	5.450	5.537	4.653	4.612	4.830	4.480
	Others	1.948	2.155	2.530	2.587	2.596	2.336	2.020
MAE	3, 4 and 5	3.398	4.029	4.071	2.63	2.666	2.814	2.595
	Others	1.511	1.655	1.913	1.446	1.469	1.741	1.500