Journal of Advanced Transportation / 2020 / Article / Tab 3

Research Article

Forecast and Analysis of Coal Traffic in Daqin Railway Based on the SARIMA-Markov Model

Table 3

Statistical table of the SARIMA model’s predicted value and residual sequence (in million tons).

TimeACTUALSARIMA FError

2010/635.538036.3685−0.8305
2010/736.323036.6030−0.2800
2010/836.211036.10510.1059
2010/932.576036.0014−3.4254
2010/1034.084032.72571.3583
2010/1132.880035.9553−3.0753
2010/1233.499034.0188−0.5198
2011/137.109032.58154.5275
2011/234.751036.8717−2.1207
2011/339.116036.42102.6950
2011/428.843035.7270−6.8840
2011/539.005034.04134.9637
2011/637.246038.0273−0.7813
2011/738.122038.9142−0.7922
2011/836.939036.76240.1766
2011/934.745035.8810−1.1360
2011/1037.969035.26462.7044
2011/1136.816038.5455−1.7295
2011/1238.331037.85820.4728
2012/138.174039.5214−1.3474
2012/234.876037.6725−2.7965
2012/336.843037.0296−0.1866
2012/431.401031.26520.1358
2012/539.101037.14831.9527
2012/634.695038.1825−3.4875
2012/732.731035.4198−2.6888
2012/831.290032.1657−0.8757
2012/934.953029.11895.8341
2012/1034.285035.6686−1.3836
2012/1138.157034.39113.7659
2012/1239.384038.94220.4418
2013/138.874041.9307−3.0567
2013/234.882036.7719−1.8899
2013/338.169037.81200.3570
2013/433.117032.65470.4623
2013/537.795039.3172−1.5222
2013/637.057035.79931.2577
2013/736.649337.0051−0.3558
2013/837.755036.32931.4257
2013/938.090036.75671.3333
2013/1035.383039.4495−4.0665
2013/1138.282036.56111.7209
2013/1239.193039.4069−0.2139
2014/139.741040.0323−0.2913
2014/234.033036.6904−2.6574
2014/339.399037.00872.3903
2014/432.122033.8711−1.7491
2014/540.607038.31922.2878
2014/638.936038.33570.6003
2014/738.925039.6389−0.7139
2014/838.154038.4263−0.2723
2014/937.665038.3145−0.6495
2014/1034.562037.6351−3.0731
2014/1137.535036.05871.4763
2014/1238.508038.17760.3304
2015/138.186039.0928−0.9068

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