The Predictive Validity of a Two-Step Selection Process to Medical Schools

Table 1

Correlations between measures of the selection process and Year 1 GPA (values for observed correlations in brackets).

Predictor	Mean	Interquartile range
Bagrut	0.30 (0.05)	0.14–0.56 (−0.12–0.25)
PET total	0.61 (0.15)	0.49–0.84 (0.07–0.27)
PET V	0.55 (0.01)	0.41–0.78 (−0.10–0.11)
PET Q	0.57 (0.14)	0.42–0.73 (0.07–0.24)
PET E	0.54 (0.14)	0.48–0.79 (0.13–0.18)
Composite 1	0.61 (0.18)	0.49–0.82 (−0.02–0.33)
MOR total	0.35 (0.17)	0.04–0.70 (0.15–0.26)
MIRKAM total	0.37 (0.09)	0.13–0.53 (0.03–0.17)
JDQ	0.31 (0.09)	0.14–0.44 (0.01–0.20)
BQ	0.33 (0.10)	0.20–0.56 (−0.02–0.26)
MOR BS	0.30 (0.14)	0.05–0.47 (0.09–0.24)
MIRKAM BS	0.27 (0.05)	0.06–0.42 (−0.01–0.13)
Composite 2-MOR	0.63 (0.28)	0.53–0.86 (0.17–0.36)
Composite 2-MIRKAM	0.64 (0.24)	0.51–0.86 (0.12–0.38)

Bagrut = high school matriculation certificate score; from PET total through PET E = the Psychometric Entrance Test total and subtest (Verbal Reasoning, Quantitative Reasoning, and English) scores, respectively; Composite 1 = the combination of the PET total score and the Bagrut score in equal weights; MOR total and MIRKAM total = the total score in MOR and MIRKAM assessment centers; JDQ and BQ = Judgement and Decision-Making Questionnaire and Biographical Questionnaire, both being part of MOR and MIRKAM; MOR BS and MIRKAM BS = behavioral stations in MOR and MIRKAM, respectively; and Composite 2-MOR and Composite 2-MIRKAM = the combination of Composite 1 score and the MOR or the MIRKAM total score, respectively, in equal weights.
; ; and after Bonferroni correction for multiple tests. p values were computed for the means of both the observed and the corrected correlations, based on the standard errors of the individual correlations [28]. The standard errors of the individual corrected correlations were computed by extending the formula for direct selection [29] to the case of indirect selection and applying it sequentially to the two-stage selection.
,002 except for MOR BS, MOR total, and Composite 2-MOR () and MIRKAM BS, MIRKAM total, and Composite 2-MIRKAM (). As mentioned above, MOR is used by two of the medical schools () and MIRKAM is used by the third (). However, many applicants are tested in both systems.