Increase in Distant Stage Breast Cancer Incidence Rates in US Women Aged 25–49 Years, 2000–2011: The Stage Migration Hypothesis

Table 2

Trend in age-standardized incidence rate for women aged 25–49 years with invasive breast cancer in SEER registries, by estrogen (ER) and progesterone (PR) hormone-receptor status category: annual percent change (APC) by stage at diagnosis^a,b.

Stage	2000		2011		2000–2011
	Number	Rate (CL)	Number	Rate (CL)	APC, % (CL)
ER negative/PR negative
Distant	124	0.8 (0.7, 1.0)	178	1.2 (1.0, 1.4)	4.7 (2.4, 7.0)^*
Regional	1177	8.0 (7.6, 8.5)	968	6.6 (6.2, 7.1)	−1.6 (−2.9, −2.0)^*
IIIC^b	165	1.1 (1.0, 1.3)	97	0.7 (0.5, 0.8)	−3.6 (−5.2, −2.1)^*
Localized	1390	9.5 (9.0, 10.0)	1380	9.3 (8.9, 9.9)	−0.3 (−1.6, +1.0)
ER positive/PR negative
Distant	37	0.3 (0.2, 0.3)	86	0.6 (0.5, 0.7)	8.0 (5.5, 10.5)^*
Regional	373	2.5 (2.3, 2.8)	444	3.1 (2.8, 3.4)	0.8 (−0.5, +2.2)
IIIC^b	47	0.3 (0.2, 0.4)	37	0.3 (0.2, 0.4)	−2.4 (−4.4, −0.3)^*
Localized	414	2.8 (2.6, 3.1)	537	3.6 (3.3, 3.9)	2.6 (1.6, 3.6)^*
ER positive/PR positive
Distant	147	1.0 (0.8, 1.2)	361	2.5 (2.2, 2.7)	9.0 (7.6, 10.4)^*
Regional	2387	16.3 (15.7, 17.0)	3014	20.5 (19.8, 21.2)	2.3 (1.8, 2.8)^*
IIIC^b	221	1.5 (1.3, 1.7)	212	1.4 (1.2, 1.6)	−1.0 (−2.6, +0.6)
Localized	3052	20.9 (20.2, 21.7)	4567	30.8 (29.9, 31.7)	4.0 (3.1, 4.8)^*

^aSummary stage 2000 (1988+) [7] (see text).
^bSEER breast-adjusted AJCC 6th edition stage IIIC, within regional summary stage cancers [11] (see text and Table 1).
CL: confidence limits (95%), lower and upper, on rate or on APC.
SEER: Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program of the National Cancer Institute.
^*CL do not include zero.