Table of Contents
Journal of Climatology
Volume 2016 (2016), Article ID 4289454, 18 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/4289454
Research Article

Changes in Climate Extremes over North Thailand, 1960–2099

1Global Institute for Water Security, School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan, 11 Innovation Boulevard, Saskatoon, SK, Canada S7N 3H5
2Agricultural Systems and Engineering, School of Environment, Resources and Development, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand
3School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand

Received 4 September 2015; Revised 10 January 2016; Accepted 14 January 2016

Academic Editor: Pedro Ribera

Copyright © 2016 Mohammad Badrul Masud et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

This study analyzes 24 climate extreme indices over North Thailand using observed data for daily maximum and minimum temperatures and total daily rainfall for the 1960–2010 period, and HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM) and PRECIS Regional Climate Model simulated data for the 1960–2100 period. A statistical downscaling tool is employed to downscale GCM outputs. Variations in and trends of historical and future climates are identified using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope. Temperature extreme indices showed a significant rising trend during the observed period and are expected to increase significantly with an increase in summer days and tropical nights in the future. A notable decline in the number of cool days and nights is also expected in the study area while the number of warm days and nights is expected to increase. There was an insignificant decrease in total annual rainfall, number of days with rainfall more than 10 and 20 mm. However, the annual rainfall is projected to increase by 9.65% in the future 2011–2099 period compared to the observed 1960–2010 period.