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Journal of Control Science and Engineering
Volume 2016, Article ID 1547462, 9 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/1547462
Research Article

The Determination of Feasible Control Variables for Geoengineering and Weather Modification Based on the Theory of Sensitivity in Dynamical Systems

St. Petersburg Institute for Informatics and Automation, The Russian Academy of Sciences, No. 39, 14th Line, St. Petersburg 199178, Russia

Received 25 November 2015; Revised 2 May 2016; Accepted 23 May 2016

Academic Editor: Ai-Guo Wu

Copyright © 2016 Sergei A. Soldatenko and Rafael M. Yusupov. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Geophysical cybernetics allows for exploring weather and climate modification (geoengineering) as an optimal control problem in which the Earth’s climate system is considered as a control system and the role of controller is given to human operators. In mathematical models used in climate studies control actions that manipulate the weather and climate can be expressed via variations in model parameters that act as controls. In this paper, we propose the “instability-sensitivity” approach that allows for determining feasible control variables in geoengineering. The method is based on the sensitivity analysis of mathematical models that describe various types of natural instability phenomena. The applicability of this technique is illustrated by a model of atmospheric baroclinic instability since this physical mechanism plays a significant role in the general circulation of the atmosphere and, consequently, in climate formation. The growth rate of baroclinic unstable waves is taken as an indicator of control manipulations. The information obtained via calculated sensitivity coefficients is very beneficial for assessing the physical feasibility of methods of control of the large-scale atmospheric dynamics and for designing optimal control systems for climatic processes. It also provides insight into potential future changes in baroclinic waves, as a result of a changing climate.