Forecasting Maternal Complications Based on the Impact of Gross National Income Using Various Models for Rwanda

Table 3

Forecasted maternal mortality using different models.

Time	ARIMA (0, 1, O)		Linear model	DESM
May 2018	6.93 ± 2.28		4.533 ± 2.34	4 [0 8]
June 2018	9.93 ± 2.37		4.544 ± 2.47	4 [0 8]
July 2018	12.93 ± 2.29		4.555 ± 2.26	6 [2 10]
August 2018	15.93 ± 2.47		4.566 ± 2.37	6 [2 10]
	Predicted value	Actual value	Forecast value	Monthly limits	Monthly errors
5/2016–5/2017	50	47		[−1, 10]	[−3, 3]
6/2017–5/2018	52	54		[−1, 11]	[−3, 7]
6/2018–5/2019			51	[0, 10]	[−3, 7]
6/2019–5/2020			48	[0, 10]	[−2, 9]
6/2020–5/2021			48	[0, 10]	[−1, 7]