Table of Contents
Journal of Geological Research
Volume 2015 (2015), Article ID 394761, 9 pages
Research Article

Tunnel Probabilistic Structural Analysis Using the FORM

Amirkabir University of Technology, 424 Hafez Avenue, Tehran 15875-4413, Iran

Received 26 January 2015; Accepted 22 July 2015

Academic Editor: Umberta Tinivella

Copyright © 2015 Yousef Mirzaeian et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


In this paper tunnel probabilistic structural analysis (TuPSA) was performed using the first order reliability method (FORM). In TuPSA, a tunnel performance function is defined according to the boundary between the structural stability and instability. Then the performance function is transformed from original space into the standard normal variable space to obtain the design point, reliability index, and also the probability of tunnel failure. In this method, it is possible to consider the design factors as the dependent or independent random parameters with arbitrary probability distributions. A software code is developed to perform the tunnel probabilistic structural analysis (TuPSA) using the FORM. For validation and verification of TuPSA, a typical tunnel example with random joints orientations as well as mechanical properties has been studied. The results of TuPSA were compared with those obtained from Monte-Carlo simulation. The results show, in spite of deterministic analysis which indicates that the rock blocks are stable, that TuPSA resulted in key-blocks failure with certain probabilities. Comparison between probabilistic and deterministic analyses results indicates that probabilistic results, including the design point and probability of failure, are more rational than deterministic factor of safety.