Planning Capacity for Mental Health and Addiction Services in the Emergency Department: A Discrete-Event Simulation Approach

Table 1

Forecasted demand for fiscal years 2017 and 2018.

	Demand in 2016	Forecast in 2017 (% increase)	Forecast in 2018 (% increase)	Forecast method	Error (MAD)
NMHA	58,947	61,995 (5.2)	63,800 (8.2)	Linear regression	716.7
MHA (substance abuse)	2,879	3,206 (11.4)	3,471 (20.6)	Linear regression	43.4
MHA (schizophrenia)	484	486 (0.4)	486 (0.4)	Weighted moving average: k = 3 and weights (0.2, 8.0 and 0.8)	14.4
MHA (mood)	1,155	1,027 (−11.1)	1,131 (−2.1)	Linear regression	154.2
MHA (anxiety)	1,454	1,424 (−2.1)	1,467 (0.9)	Linear regression	136.6
MHA (others)	159	159 (0.0)	177 (11.3)	Linear regression	21.5

Compared to observed demand in 2017.