Review Article

Current Mathematical Models for Analyzing Anti-Malarial Antibody Data with an Eye to Malaria Elimination and Eradication

Table 2

Maximum likelihood estimates for seroconversion and seroreversion rates (SCRs and SRRs, resp.) of antibodies against AMA1 expected for northwest and northeast regions of Bioko Island using the reversible catalytic and superinfection models (RCMs and SIM, resp.) under the assumptions of constant malaria transmission intensity over time and an abrupt reduction in malaria transmission at a given change time point before data collection.

Region Model Malaria transmission SCR (95% CI) SRR (95% CI) log-likelihood

Northwest RCM Constant 0.286 (0.249, 0.328)0.008 (0.005, 0.015)−71.31
SIM Constant 0.359 (0.307, 0.419)0.091 (0.069, 0.120)−69.71
Northeast RCM Constant 0.124 (0.109, 0.141)0.006 (0.004, 0.011)−96.87
SIM Constant 0.139 (0.119, 0.163)0.039 (0.028, 0.056)−102.95
RCM Abrupt reduction (change point = 6)0.274 (0.200, 0.376)0.009 (0.005, 0.014)−84.25
0.077 (0.058, 0.100)
SIM Abrupt reduction (change point = 6)0.900 (0.431, 1.879)0.150 (0.097, 0.232)−83.37
0.098 (0.075, 0.129)