Current Mathematical Models for Analyzing Anti-Malarial Antibody Data with an Eye to Malaria Elimination and Eradication

Table 3

Bayesian analysis of P. falciparum seropositivity data from Jacearecanga where RCM_red, , and RCM_behavior denote the reversible catalytic models assuming an abrupt reduction in SCR only, an abrupt reduction together with migration effects, and a change in SCR due to a behavioral factor dependent on a given age cut-off.

Model	Parameter	Posterior estimates
		Mean	Median	95% credible interval
RCMred	Past SCR	0.436	0.386	0.099–0.948
	Current SCR	0.019	0.019	0.009–0.033
	Time elapsed since reduction	27.6	28.0	22.0–33.0
	Past SCR	0.292	0.192	0.052–0.916
	Current SCR	0.038	0.037	0.013–0.067
	Time elapsed since reduction	24.5	26.0	4.0–39.0
RCMbehavior	Baseline SCR	0.051	0.046	0.019–0.106
	Risk SCR	0.654	0.693	0.153–0.988
	Age cut-off	28.9	29.0	26.0–33.0

Credible interval based on 2.5% and 97.5% quantiles of the respective posterior distribution.