Prediction of Farmers’ Income in Hebei Province Based on the Fractional Grey Model (1,1)

Table 4

Prediction results of the GM (1,1) model and FGM (1,1) model.

	Shijiazhuang			Tangshan			Qinhuangdao
Year	PCDI	GM (1,1)	FGM (1,1)	PCDI	GM (1,1)	FGM (1,1)	PCDI	GM (1,1)	FGM (1,1)
2012	8993	8993	8993	10698	10698	10698	8315	8315	8315
2013	9682	9730	9701	11674	11752	11674	9007	9068	9007
2014	10691	10544	10498	12867	12756	12759	9964	9855	9857
2015	11442	11427	11377	13935	13846	13884	10782	10711	10741
2016	12345	12383	12343	15023	15029	15075	11621	11641	11677
2017	13345	13420	13402	16229	16313	16346	12563	12652	12679
2018	14518	14543	14563	17656	17706	17710	13719	13751	13755
2019	15853	15761	15835	19316	19219	19176	15035	14945	14912
MAPE (%)		0.52	0.49		0.50	0.47		0.59	0.56
	Baoding			Cangzhou			Xingtai
Year	PCDI	GM (1,1)	FGM (1,1)	PCDI	GM (1,1)	FGM (1,1)	PCDI	GM (1,1)	FGM (1,1)
2012	7696	7696	7696	7514	7514	7514	6601	6601	6601
2013	8649	8694	8685	8470	8578	8470	7446	7430	7430
2014	9704	9579	9579	9442	9399	9401	8342	8222	8222
2015	10558	10553	10558	10389	10298	10350	9152	9098	9098
2016	11612	11628	11633	11340	11283	11347	10006	10067	10067
2017	12779	12811	12815	12363	12362	12410	10999	11139	11139
2018	14108	14115	14116	13516	13545	13551	12287	12326	12326
2019	15618	15552	15547	14854	14841	14781	13798	13639	13639
MAPE (%)		0.39	0.38		0.49	0.29		0.80	0.80
	Langfang			Chengde			Zhangjiakou
Year	PCDI	GM (1,1)	FGM (1,1)	PCDI	GM (1,1)	FGM (1,1)	PCDI	GM (1,1)	FGM (1,1)
2012	10447	10447	10447	5546	5546	5546	5564	5564	5564
2013	10985	11053	10985	6031	6265	6057	6583	6622	6583
2014	12115	12034	12035	7163	6990	6973	7462	7401	7401
2015	13159	13101	13134	7923	7799	7885	8341	8272	8289
2016	14286	14262	14304	8736	8701	8824	9241	9245	9267
2017	15487	15527	15558	9682	9707	9890	10293	10332	10349
2018	16865	16904	16908	10804	10830	10857	11531	11547	11550
2019	18467	18403	18364	12101	12083	11978	12973	12905	12885
MAPE (%)		0.39	0.32		1.28	1.06		0.47	0.44
	Hengshui
Year	PCDI	GM (1,1)	FGM (1,1)
2012	6167	6167	6167
2013	7182	7235	7182
2014	8104	8067	8067
2015	9030	8996	9019
2016	10069	10031	10061
2017	11194	11186	11209
2018	12493	12473	12476
2019	13917	13908	13880
MAPE (%)		0.32	0.16