Journal of Mathematics / 2022 / Article / Tab 1 / Research Article
An Exponential Curve Model and Its Application in Forecasting Private Car Ownership of China Table 1 Calculation results of private car ownership data by exponential curve, modified exponential curve, and the new exponential curve of first order polynomial term.
Year Actual value Exponential curve APE (%) Modified exponential curve APE (%) New exponential curve APE (%) 2003 1219.23 1353.2936 10.9958 1151.4744 5.5572 1371.5434 12.4926 2004 1481.66 1659.5926 12.0090 1480.2007 0.0985 1451.6567 2.0250 2005 1848.07 2035.2180 10.1267 1880.9844 1.7810 1725.7599 6.6183 2006 2333.32 2495.8609 6.9661 2369.6205 1.5557 2190.4378 6.1236 2007 2876.22 3060.7638 6.4162 2965.3666 3.0994 2842.3354 1.1781 2008 3501.39 3753.5246 7.2010 3691.7013 5.4353 3678.1568 5.0485 2009 4574.91 4603.0820 0.6158 4577.2499 0.0511 4694.6642 2.6176 2010 5938.71 5644.9248 4.9470 5656.9122 4.7451 5888.6766 0.8425 2011 7326.79 6922.5741 5.5170 6973.2385 4.8255 7257.0692 0.9516 2012 8838.60 8489.4012 3.9508 8578.1058 2.9472 8796.7721 0.4732 2013 10501.68 10410.8576 0.8648 10534.7629 0.3150 10504.7694 0.0294 2014 12339.36 12767.2086 3.4673 12920.3228 4.7082 12378.0985 0.3139 2015 14099.10 15656.8864 11.0488 15828.8015 12.2682 14413.8487 2.2324 2016 16330.20 19200.6021 17.5773 19374.8241 18.6441 16609.1607 1.7083 2017 18515.10 23546.3879 27.1740 23698.1410 27.9936 18961.2255 2.4095 2018 20574.93 28875.7812 40.3445 28969.1368 40.7982 21467.2836 4.3371 2019 35411.4076 35395.5441 24124.6239 2020 43426.2809 43230.6314 26930.5833 MAPEsimu (%) 5.6438 2.6875 2.3838 MAPEfit (%) 24.0361 24.9260 2.6718 MAPEtotal (%) 10.5484 8.6178 2.4606