An Approximate Bayesian Method Applied to Estimating the Trajectories of Four British Grey Seal (Halichoerus grypus) Populations from Pup Counts

Table 1

Distributions of parameter values. The priors are taken from Newman et al. [9], the posterior values are those from the replicate model runs in each region.

	Symbol	Prior			Posterior
					North Sea		Orkney		Inner Hebrides		Outer Hebrides
		distribution	mean	sd	mean	sd	mean	sd	mean	sd	mean	sd
max pup survival	𝑠𝑝	Beta(14.53,6.23)	0.7	0.1	0.7	0.1	0.7	0.1	0.7	0.1	0.7	0.1
adult survival	𝑠𝑎	Beta(22.05,1.15)	0.95	0.04	0.92	0.01	0.96	0.01	0.95	0.02	0.91	0.01
max fecundity	𝑏	Beta(22.05,1.15)	0.95	0.04	0.95	0.05	0.95	0.05	0.95	0.05	0.95	0.05