Research Article
Forecasting the COVID-19 Diffusion in Italy and the Related Occupancy of Intensive Care Units
Table 2
10-step-ahead predictions for the variable Ut (people in ICUs).
| ā | Italy | | | | |
| 29 March | 3681 | 3960 | 4086 | 570.4 | 30 March | 3751 | 4009 | 4170 | 601.3 | 31 March | 3730 | 4075 | 4264 | 784.2 | 1 April | 3732 | 4141 | 4350 | 880.0 | 2 April | 3707 | 4185 | 4386 | 945.2 | 3 April | 3667 | 4262 | 4493 | 1012.7 | 4 April | 3608 | 4280 | 4610 | 1402.6 | 5 April | 3492 | 4275 | 4701 | 1611.8 | 6 April | 3347 | 4249 | 4814 | 2097.0 | 7 April | 3143 | 4243 | 4899 | 2418.4 |
| Lombardia |
| 29 March | 1272 | 1369 | 1426 | 202.6 | 30 March | 1286 | 1389 | 1458 | 237.4 | 31 March | 1287 | 1402 | 1482 | 242.4 | 1 April | 1291 | 1412 | 1490 | 274.7 | 2 April | 1289 | 1420 | 1509 | 304.6 | 3 April | 1286 | 1427 | 1526 | 325.6 | 4 April | 1270 | 1425 | 1537 | 386.4 | 5 April | 1252 | 1421 | 1558 | 423.7 | 6 April | 1227 | 1416 | 1578 | 501.5 | 7 April | 1191 | 1412 | 1599 | 580.3 |
| Piedmont |
| 29 March | 422 | 433 | 451 | 32.7 | 30 March | 428 | 436 | 457 | 40.1 | 31 March | 428 | 438 | 470 | 58.3 | 1 April | 427 | 436 | 478 | 70.2 | 2 April | 424 | 434 | 491 | 92.0 | 3 April | 419 | 427 | 498 | 111.7 | 4 April | 409 | 417 | 508 | 134.0 | 5 April | 395 | 406 | 512 | 163.1 | 6 April | 373 | 396 | 523 | 204.5 | 7 April | 354 | 383 | 535 | 254.3 |
| Liguria |
| 29 March | 156 | 163 | 168 | 15.1 | 30 March | 159 | 163 | 171 | 16.1 | 31 March | 158 | 163 | 174 | 21.4 | 1 April | 158 | 162 | 178 | 26.8 | 2 April | 158 | 161 | 181 | 30.9 | 3 April | 156 | 159 | 185 | 39.5 | 4 April | 153 | 157 | 187 | 47.8 | 5 April | 148 | 153 | 191 | 60.0 | 6 April | 143 | 151 | 193 | 70.6 | 7 April | 137 | 145 | 195 | 82.4 |
| Valle Aosta |
| 29 March | 24 | 25 | 27 | 2.4 | 30 March | 25 | 25 | 29 | 3.1 | 31 March | 24 | 25 | 30 | 4.0 | 1 April | 24 | 24 | 31 | 4.3 | 2 April | 23 | 22 | 32 | 5.5 | 3 April | 22 | 21 | 33 | 6.8 | 4 April | 21 | 19 | 34 | 8.2 | 5 April | 19 | 16 | 36 | 12.3 | 6 April | 18 | 14 | 36 | 13.3 | 7 April | 15 | 12 | 37 | 18.4 |
| Veneto |
| 29 March | 331 | 357 | 367 | 48.5 | 30 March | 335 | 360 | 375 | 53.7 | 31 March | 335 | 365 | 382 | 65.3 | 1 April | 334 | 370 | 391 | 80.6 | 2 April | 332 | 375 | 401 | 96.7 | 3 April | 324 | 378 | 409 | 119.4 | 4 April | 312 | 375 | 424 | 156.7 | 5 April | 298 | 376 | 440 | 200.4 | 6 April | 286 | 370 | 448 | 231.1 | 7 April | 267 | 369 | 461 | 268.0 |
| Friuli Venezia Giulia |
| 29 March | 56 | 57 | 60 | 4.3 | 30 March | 56 | 58 | 60 | 4.8 | 31 March | 56 | 58 | 63 | 4.5 | 1 April | 55 | 58 | 63 | 5.2 | 2 April | 54 | 57 | 65 | 7.0 | 3 April | 52 | 56 | 66 | 8.3 | 4 April | 51 | 56 | 67 | 10.2 | 5 April | 49 | 55 | 69 | 11.4 | 6 April | 48 | 53 | 71 | 12.0 | 7 April | 44 | 52 | 72 | 15.3 |
| Emilia-Romagna |
| 29 March | 306 | 349 | 379 | 100.5 | 30 March | 309 | 365 | 394 | 116.7 | 31 March | 309 | 369 | 409 | 136.5 | 1 April | 312 | 372. | 421 | 148.5 | 2 April | 313 | 379 | 433 | 152.7 | 3 April | 314 | 386 | 439 | 174.1 | 4 April | 311 | 388 | 442 | 180.7 | 5 April | 307 | 392 | 442 | 188.6 | 6 April | 298 | 399 | 447 | 212.6 | 7 April | 288 | 401 | 444 | 212.5 |
| Trentino Alto Adige |
| 29 March | 110 | 124 | 135 | 20.4 | 30 March | 113 | 127 | 144 | 27.4 | 31 March | 114 | 130 | 150 | 33.5 | 1 April | 113 | 132 | 155 | 40.5 | 2 April | 113 | 133 | 158 | 42.6 | 3 April | 111 | 133 | 160 | 48.5 | 4 April | 107 | 131 | 161 | 54.8 | 5 April | 101 | 130 | 164 | 60.3 | 6 April | 94 | 126 | 171 | 76.8 | 7 April | 87 | 123 | 175 | 87.3 |
| Lazio |
| 29 March | 120 | 136 | 146 | 29.8 | 30 March | 125 | 139 | 157 | 35.4 | 31 March | 123 | 141 | 171 | 58.6 | 1 April | 118 | 144 | 179 | 71.0 | 2 April | 111 | 145 | 200 | 109.5 | 3 April | 104 | 145 | 219 | 135.3 | 4 April | 95 | 141 | 235 | 160.3 | 5 April | 84 | 139 | 264 | 196.8 | 6 April | 73 | 134 | 294 | 253.8 | 7 April | 61 | 131 | 343 | 321.5 |
| Macroarea Center |
| 29 March | 476 | 491 | 509 | 40.6 | 30 March | 485 | 492 | 519 | 45.3 | 31 March | 484 | 492 | 534 | 64.9 | 1 April | 482 | 489 | 547 | 85.6 | 2 April | 479 | 484 | 565 | 116.2 | 3 April | 475 | 478 | 586 | 142.0 | 4 April | 468 | 469 | 608 | 193.6 | 5 April | 460 | 460 | 624 | 224.0 | 6 April | 448 | 448 | 649 | 273.3 | 7 April | 438 | 438 | 681 | 331.9 |
| Campania |
| 29 March | 126 | 142 | 167 | 41.2 | 30 March | 133 | 159 | 197 | 68.5 | 31 March | 138 | 176 | 228 | 97.4 | 1 April | 144 | 189 | 257 | 114.9 | 2 April | 147 | 201 | 293 | 150.8 | 3 April | 148 | 206 | 326 | 197.8 | 4 April | 143 | 211 | 348 | 212.4 | 5 April | 134 | 203 | 382 | 246.2 | 6 April | 120 | 197 | 411 | 311.7 | 7 April | 109 | 192 | 447 | 370.1 |
| Macroarea South |
| 29 March | 296 | 319 | 342 | 52.2 | 30 March | 303 | 326 | 348 | 55.4 | 31 March | 312 | 335 | 367 | 64.8 | 1 April | 306 | 340 | 367 | 70.3 | 2 April | 302 | 343 | 383 | 100.4 | 3 April | 298 | 346 | 394 | 118.5 | 4 April | 289 | 348 | 408 | 130.7 | 5 April | 278 | 342 | 421 | 171.6 | 6 April | 264 | 334 | 441 | 212.7 | 7 April | 244 | 318 | 462 | 270.5 |
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