Nonstationary Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Modelling for Fitting Higher Order Moments of Financial Series within Moving Time Windows

<div>The minimum distance of two time series, Barclays Bank (red) and Gold ETFs (blue) between 2000 and 2018, when we truncate the time series into different lengths, is shown for the cost function (<a href="https://static.hindawi.com/articles/jps/volume-2022/4170866/figures/#EEq27">27</a>). An insert of this plot highlights the correlation between <svg height="11.8174pt" id="M220" style="vertical-align:-3.1815pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 10.5526 11.8174" width="10.5526pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M485 501C480 550 475 615 475 650H42V622C119 616 127 606 127 525V126C127 44 119 34 41 28V0H311V28C220 34 212 43 212 126V584C212 612 216 615 244 615H318C382 615 404 608 420 587C435 568 445 541 455 497L485 501Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,5.486,3.132)"><path d="M462 177V227H365V632H320C217 496 116 350 21 208V177H284V109C284 43 280 38 190 31V0H451V31C369 38 365 43 365 108V177H462ZM284 227H88C155 336 218 430 282 519H284V227Z"></path></g></svg> and <svg height="11.927pt" id="M221" style="vertical-align:-3.291101pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.6359 10.5526 11.927" width="10.5526pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M485 501C480 550 475 615 475 650H42V622C119 616 127 606 127 525V126C127 44 119 34 41 28V0H311V28C220 34 212 43 212 126V584C212 612 216 615 244 615H318C382 615 404 608 420 587C435 568 445 541 455 497L485 501Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.0091,0,0,-0.0091,5.486,3.132)"><path d="M141 347C171 480 264 541 327 570C364 587 403 599 436 605L429 641C389 634 339 622 300 609C191 570 37 458 37 239C37 86 126 -12 245 -12C367 -12 454 89 454 210C454 314 380 397 272 397C252 397 230 390 208 380L141 347ZM231 338C323 338 366 257 366 174C366 108 340 27 263 27C180 27 129 123 129 244C129 268 130 292 135 310C158 323 193 338 231 338Z"></path></g></svg> for Gold ETFs, which corresponds to a correlation coefficient, <span class="nowrap"><svg height="11.7782pt" id="M222" style="vertical-align:-3.42938pt" version="1.1" viewbox="-0.0498162 -8.34882 56.3483 11.7782" width="56.3483pt" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,0,0)"><path d="M516 277C516 378 460 448 376 448C335 448 288 434 240 401C158 345 127 277 107 159C53 -161 38 -221 23 -247L28 -261C43 -260 95 -250 114 -226C122 -216 129 -199 146 -75C152 -29 157 0 164 31C182 9 206 -12 237 -12C267 -12 325 8 376 46C451 102 516 179 516 277ZM432 259C432 134 366 40 259 40C236 40 204 48 171 76L195 203C219 327 253 400 326 400C398 400 432 336 432 259Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,10.642,0)"><path d="M535 323V373H52V323H535ZM535 138V188H52V138H535Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,21.905,0)"><path d="M241 635C89 635 35 457 35 312C35 153 89 -12 240 -12C390 -12 443 166 443 312C443 466 390 635 241 635ZM238 602C329 602 354 454 354 312C354 172 330 22 240 22C152 22 124 173 124 313S148 602 238 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,28.145,0)"><path d="M113 -12C146 -12 170 11 170 46C170 78 146 103 114 103S58 78 58 46C58 11 82 -12 113 -12Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,31.109,0)"><path d="M244 635C114 635 38 519 38 422C38 317 111 240 217 240C236 240 255 244 277 256L345 292C311 140 203 39 59 15L64 -15C89 -15 150 -5 204 17C339 72 440 202 440 386C440 521 368 635 244 635ZM228 602C326 602 352 479 352 390C352 370 351 347 348 324C327 308 293 296 258 296C174 296 124 369 124 458C124 517 152 602 228 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,37.35,0)"><path d="M244 635C114 635 38 519 38 422C38 317 111 240 217 240C236 240 255 244 277 256L345 292C311 140 203 39 59 15L64 -15C89 -15 150 -5 204 17C339 72 440 202 440 386C440 521 368 635 244 635ZM228 602C326 602 352 479 352 390C352 370 351 347 348 324C327 308 293 296 258 296C174 296 124 369 124 458C124 517 152 602 228 602Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,43.591,0)"><path d="M153 550H386L412 615L406 623H120L82 318C104 327 142 338 184 338C294 338 347 275 347 187C347 112 305 39 221 39C160 39 119 71 97 89C88 97 80 96 71 90C59 80 50 67 49 57C48 45 52 36 66 23C80 9 123 -12 169 -12C221 -11 288 15 342 59C403 109 431 165 431 225C431 308 366 395 238 395C212 395 165 379 127 364L153 550Z"></path></g><g transform="matrix(.013,0,0,-0.013,49.832,0)"><path d="M285 378C315 398 338 416 353 432C373 451 384 474 384 503C384 579 325 635 236 635H235C182 635 136 610 108 579L65 516L85 496C110 533 150 575 205 575C258 575 300 543 300 481C300 407 232 369 141 339L147 310C163 315 188 321 211 321C268 321 338 284 338 192C338 94 288 40 217 40C160 40 119 68 93 91C85 98 77 97 69 91C60 84 47 71 46 58C44 46 48 35 62 22C75 10 116 -12 162 -12C234 -12 424 62 424 224C424 297 373 359 285 376V378Z"></path></g></svg>.</span></div>

Journal of Probability and Statistics

fig10

Figure 10

Figure 10: Nonstationary Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Modelling for Fitting Higher Order Moments of Financial Series within Moving Time Windows 

Figure 10 | Nonstationary Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Modelling for Fitting Higher Order Moments of Financial Series within Moving Time Windows 