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Journal of Sensors
Volume 2017 (2017), Article ID 4012929, 18 pages
https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/4012929
Research Article

Simulating Land Use Change in the Seoul Metropolitan Area after Greenbelt Elimination Using the SLEUTH Model

1BK21 Plus Project of the Graduate School of Earth Environmental Hazards System, Pukyong National University, 45 Yongso-ro, Nam-gu, Busan 48513, Republic of Korea
2Department of Geography, 1720 Ellison Hall, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-4060, USA
3Department of Spatial Information Engineering, Pukyong National University, 45 Yongso-ro, Nam-gu, Busan 48513, Republic of Korea

Correspondence should be addressed to Jinsoo Kim; rk.ca.unkp@mikoosnij

Received 24 April 2017; Revised 9 July 2017; Accepted 25 July 2017; Published 28 September 2017

Academic Editor: Hyung-Sup Jung

Copyright © 2017 Soyoung Park et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of a policy aimed at the removal of a greenbelt on future urban growth. The SLEUTH model was applied to the Seoul Metropolitan Area, South Korea, to predict urban growth under three different greenbelt removal scenarios. The accuracy of the model was verified using historical data with ROC and Kappa statistics of 82.6 and 76.3%, indicating reasonable accuracy. In the scenarios, suburban development grew in proportion to the degree of reduction of the greenbelt. In two of the scenarios, suburban cities in the inner part of the greenbelt were integrated into the metropolitan area. In scenario 3, a complete removal of the greenbelt resulted in the highest rate of projected urban development. The Seoul Metropolitan Area is under continuous developmental pressure, and the sacrifice of a certain amount of protected land to satisfy this demand may be inevitable. Accordingly, effective urban growth management is necessary to promote ecofriendly and sustainable development in formerly protected areas and to strengthen protection in the areas that will remain protected. The model outputs will be used by the government and policy makers to devise a more flexible and sustainable urban growth management policy.