Research Article
Malignancy Risk Assessment in Patients with Thyroid Nodules Using Classification and Regression Trees
Table 3
Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the optimal tree in discriminating benign from malignant pathologies.
| | | Learning sample | Test sample | Test sample with nondiagnostic, indeterminate, or suspicious FNA |
| | First step | | | | | Sensitivity | 94.4 (84.9–98.1) | 91.3 (70.5–98.5) | 100.0 (46.3–1.0) | | Specificity | 65.4 (57.1–72.9) | 56.9 (43.3–69.6) | 61.8 (43.6–77.3) | | PPV | 52.1 (41.8–62.1) | 45.7 (31.2–60.8) | 27.8 (10.7–53.6) | | NPV | 96.7 (90.1–99.1) | 94.3 (79.5–99.0) | 100.0 (80.8–1.0) | | Second step | | | | | Sensitivity | 82.3 (68.6–91.1) | 76.2 (52.4–90.9) | 80.0 (29.9–98.9) | | Specificity | 91.5 (78.7–97.2) | 84.0 (63.1–94.7) | 84.6 (53.7–97.3) | | PPV | 91.3 (78.3–97.2) | 80.0 (55.7–93.4) | 66.7 (41.1–85.6) | | NPV | 82.7 (69.2–91.3) | 80.8 (60.0–92.7) | 91.7 (59.7–99.6) | | Decision tree | | | | | Sensitivity | 77.8 (64.1–87.5) | 69.6 (47.0–85.9) | 80.0 (29.9–98.9) | | Specificity | 97.1 (92.2–99.0) | 93.1 (82.4–97.8) | 94.1 (78.9–99.0) | | PPV | 91.3 (78.3–97.2) | 80.0 (55.7–93.4) | 66.7 (41.1–85.6) | | NPV | 91.7 (85.6–95.4) | 88.5 (77.2–94.5) | 97.0 (82.5–99.8) |
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Abbreviations: FNA: fine needle aspiration; PPV: positive predictive value; NPV: negative predictive value.
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