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Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Volume 2012, Article ID 720849, 15 pages
Research Article

Study on Apparent Kinetic Prediction Model of the Smelting Reduction Based on the Time-Series

1Engineering Research Center of Metallurgical Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction, Ministry of Education, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming, Yunnan 650093, China
2Department of Information Management, Oriental Institute of Technology, 58, Sec. 2, Sichuan Roa., Panchiao, Taipei 200, Taiwan
3Faculty of Science, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming, Yunnan 650093, China

Received 29 December 2011; Revised 2 March 2012; Accepted 8 March 2012

Academic Editor: Yuri Vladimirovich Mikhlin

Copyright © 2012 Guo-feng Fan et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


A series of direct smelting reduction experiment has been carried out with high phosphorous iron ore of the different bases by thermogravimetric analyzer. The derivative thermogravimetric (DTG) data have been obtained from the experiments. One-step forward local weighted linear (LWL) method , one of the most suitable ways of predicting chaotic time-series methods which focus on the errors, is used to predict DTG. In the meanwhile, empirical mode decomposition-autoregressive (EMD-AR), a data mining technique in signal processing, is also used to predict DTG. The results show that (1) EMD-AR(4) is the most appropriate and its error is smaller than the former; (2) root mean square error (RMSE) has decreased about two-thirds; (3) standardized root mean square error (NMSE) has decreased in an order of magnitude. Finally in this paper, EMD-AR method has been improved by golden section weighting; its error would be smaller than before. Therefore, the improved EMD-AR model is a promising alternative for apparent reaction rate (DTG). The analytical results have been an important reference in the field of industrial control.