Set Pair Analysis Based on Phase Space Reconstruction Model and Its Application in Forecasting Extreme Temperature

Table 2

Prediction results and the corresponding relative errors (REs).

Year	Measured value (0.1/°C)	AR model		BP model		R-SPA model		SPA-PSR model
		P (0.1/°C)	RE (%)	P (0.1/°C)	RE (%)	P (0.1/°C)	RE (%)	P (0.1/°C)	RE (%)
2000	250	177.91	28.84	172.66	30.94	220.89	11.64	208.91	16.43
2001	239	182.30	23.72	182.74	23.54	208.08	12.94	258.14	8.01
2002	241	183.82	23.73	183.67	23.79	212.71	11.74	239.92	0.45
2003	233	173.99	25.33	202.02	13.30	236.92	1.68	254.56	9.25
2004	216	173.07	19.88	184.38	14.64	242.55	12.29	244.02	12.97
2005	241	178.01	26.14	210.23	12.77	253.00	4.98	228.12	5.35
2006	227	179.06	21.12	192.55	15.17	243.40	7.23	248.73	9.57
2007	234	173.69	25.77	192.24	17.85	247.74	5.87	214.79	8.21
2008	232	181.48	21.78	184.54	20.46	247.80	6.81	243.74	5.06
2009	236	178.04	24.56	179.79	23.82	274.66	16.38	234.01	0.84
2010	286	176.15	38.41	179.06	37.39	253.15	11.48	232.09	18.85