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Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Volume 2014 (2014), Article ID 490280, 11 pages
Research Article

Capacity Prediction Model Based on Limited Priority Gap-Acceptance Theory at Multilane Roundabouts

College of Transportation, Jilin University, Changchun 130022, China

Received 9 July 2014; Accepted 25 July 2014; Published 26 August 2014

Academic Editor: Wuhong Wang

Copyright © 2014 Zhaowei Qu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


Capacity is an important design parameter for roundabouts, and it is the premise of computing their delay and queue. Roundabout capacity has been studied for decades, and empirical regression model and gap-acceptance model are the two main methods to predict it. Based on gap-acceptance theory, by considering the effect of limited priority, especially the relationship between limited priority factor and critical gap, a modified model was built to predict the roundabout capacity. We then compare the results between Raff’s method and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method, and the MLE method was used to predict the critical gaps. Finally, the predicted capacities from different models were compared, with the observed capacity by field surveys, which verifies the performance of the proposed model.