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Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Volume 2014, Article ID 508039, 11 pages
Research Article

Traffic Incident Clearance Time and Arrival Time Prediction Based on Hazard Models

1School of Management, Shanghai University, Shangda Road 99, Shanghai, China
2Smart Transport Research Centre, Queensland University of Technology, Level 8, P Block, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia

Received 25 February 2014; Accepted 31 March 2014; Published 17 April 2014

Academic Editor: X. Zhang

Copyright © 2014 Yang beibei Ji et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


Accurate prediction of incident duration is not only important information of Traffic Incident Management System, but also an effective input for travel time prediction. In this paper, the hazard based prediction models are developed for both incident clearance time and arrival time. The data are obtained from the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads’ STREAMS Incident Management System (SIMS) for one year ending in November 2010. The best fitting distributions are drawn for both clearance and arrival time for 3 types of incident: crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard. The results show that Gamma, Log-logistic, and Weibull are the best fit for crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard incident, respectively. The obvious impact factors are given for crash clearance time and arrival time. The quantitative influences for crash and hazard incident are presented for both clearance and arrival. The model accuracy is analyzed at the end.