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Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Volume 2015, Article ID 157184, 5 pages
Research Article

Application of AR Model in the Analysis of Preearthquake Ionospheric Anomalies

1School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, China
2School of Geoscience and Technology, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, China
3State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology & Exploitation, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, China

Received 6 January 2015; Revised 13 March 2015; Accepted 30 March 2015

Academic Editor: Michael Small

Copyright © 2015 Xiaojun Dai et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


Earthquake ionosphere coupling phenomenon is one of the hot research topics using the Global Positioning System (GPS). Taking Lushan earthquake in April 2013 as an example, this paper firstly establishes ionosphere TEC models and determines the optimal model based on Autoregression model by analyzing the TEC values of the epicenter area detected by GPS. Then it makes predictions about the ionosphere data, obtains the background value, and conducts anomaly analysis by using the optimal model. Finally the correlation between ionosphere anomalies and earthquake is analyzed quantitatively by presenting data diagrams explicitly; then a new method to do short-term and imminent earthquake prediction is proposed in the end.