Mathematical Problems in Engineering

Research Article

An Experimental Investigation of FNN Model for Wind Speed Forecasting Using EEMD and CS

Table 3

The multi-step ahead forecasting errors of the four models in Jan.


Steps	Errors	WTG 25				WTG 26				WTG 27				WTG 28
Steps	Errors	Model 1^a	Model 2^b	Model 3^c	Model 4^d	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4

One-step ahead	MAE	0.84	0.63	0.60	0.46	0.90	0.60	0.63	0.46	1.11	0.77	0.79	0.64	0.89	0.62	0.62	0.50
	MAPE	7.47	5.74	5.46	4.31	10.66	6.88	6.97	5.08	9.86	7.19	7.34	5.93	8.47	6.03	6.12	4.77
	RMSE	1.15	0.85	0.80	0.64	1.14	0.80	0.84	0.62	2.14	1.09	1.22	0.91	1.23	0.83	0.83	0.68

Two-step ahead	MAE	1.08	0.71	0.73	0.57	0.96	0.69	0.79	0.53	1.36	0.97	1.30	0.64	1.17	0.68	0.75	0.54
	MAPE	9.79	6.67	6.80	5.28	10.98	8.33	9.15	6.03	12.17	9.30	11.23	6.28	11.40	6.84	7.40	5.13
	RMSE	1.49	0.95	0.98	0.74	1.24	0.88	1.05	0.69	3.25	1.33	2.97	0.85	1.60	0.92	0.98	0.74

Three-step ahead	MAE	1.08	0.77	0.79	0.63	1.26	0.76	0.75	0.64	1.18	0.98	1.07	0.81	1.03	0.76	0.80	0.62
	MAPE	10.73	7.27	7.41	5.90	15.34	8.98	8.83	7.26	11.66	10.00	10.54	8.01	10.09	7.66	7.96	6.10
	RMSE	1.41	1.02	1.07	0.83	1.60	0.99	0.99	0.83	1.59	1.32	1.51	1.13	1.41	1.01	1.07	0.83

Four-step ahead	MAE	0.98	0.85	0.86	0.71	0.89	0.81	0.87	0.69	1.56	0.99	1.15	0.87	1.10	0.83	0.85	0.70
	MAPE	9.19	8.08	8.19	6.77	10.44	9.73	11.05	8.12	14.30	10.55	11.53	8.96	10.81	8.53	8.66	7.10
	RMSE	1.30	1.13	1.13	0.94	1.16	1.07	1.13	0.92	2.97	1.32	1.85	1.14	1.44	1.11	1.15	0.93

Five-step ahead	MAE	1.02	0.94	0.92	0.81	1.39	0.90	0.89	0.79	1.98	1.12	1.22	1.00	1.10	0.91	0.93	0.81
	MAPE	9.55	8.92	8.79	7.63	17.67	10.75	11.29	9.35	18.28	11.86	12.53	10.38	10.97	9.37	9.49	8.36
	RMSE	1.36	1.22	1.21	1.03	1.72	1.19	1.18	1.03	3.03	1.49	1.73	1.31	1.48	1.22	1.24	1.09

Six-step ahead	MAE	1.18	1.01	1.01	0.90	1.14	0.93	0.99	0.87	1.49	1.15	1.41	1.13	1.18	0.97	0.97	0.90
	MAPE	10.85	9.61	9.56	8.64	13.23	11.34	12.20	10.35	14.51	12.23	14.01	11.71	12.95	9.99	10.12	9.22
	RMSE	1.58	1.31	1.32	1.18	1.50	1.24	1.29	1.15	2.60	1.51	2.62	1.54	1.56	1.30	1.31	1.19

FNN model; ^bEEMD-FNN model; ^cCS-FNN model; ^dCS-EEMD-FNN.