Research Article
Global Production Planning Process considering the Supply Risk of Overseas Manufacturing Sites
Table 3
Step-by-step results of supply capacity estimation process.
| | (a) Ideal supply capacities without considering any risks | | | September () | October () | November () | December () |
| | Production facility #1 | 1160 | 1181 | 1346 | 1400 | | Production facility #2 | 1602 | 1305 | 1564 | 1249 |
| | (b) Judgments of the experts on the timing of risk | | | September () | October () | November () | December () |
| | Expert 1 | At the beginning of the month | In about three weeks | No risk | At the beginning of the month | | Expert 2 | In about one week | In about three weeks | No risk | In about one week | | Expert 3 | In about one week | In about two weeks | No risk | In about two weeks |
| | (c) Judgments of the experts on the impact of risk | | | September () | October () | November () | December () |
| | Expert 1 | Large | Small | No risk | Extremely large | | Expert 2 | Medium | None | No risk | Large | | Expert 3 | Large | Small | No risk | Extremely large |
| | (d) The integrated fuzzy numbers for both the timing and impact of risk | | | September () | October () | November () | December () |
| | Timing of risk | (0, 0.67, 2) | (1, 2.67, 4) | (4, 4, 4) | (0, 1, 3) | | Impact of risk | (0, 1.33, 3) | (2, 3.33, 4) | (4, 4, 4) | (0, 0.33, 2) |
| | (e) The converted crisp numbers for both timing and impact of risk | | | September () | October () | November () | December () |
| | Timing of risk | 0.733 | 2.633 | 4 | 1.1 | | Impact of risk | 1.366 | 3.266 | 4 | 0.466 |
| | (f) The final estimated supply capacities | | | September () | October () | November () | December () |
| | Production facility #1 | 536 | 1107 | 1346 | 503 | | Production facility #2 | 741 | 1223 | 1564 | 449 |
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