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Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Volume 2015, Article ID 602126, 9 pages
Research Article

Modeling and Analysis of Train Rear-End Collision Accidents Based on Stochastic Petri Nets

State Key Laboratory of Rail Traffic Control and Safety, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China

Received 25 September 2014; Revised 28 December 2014; Accepted 2 February 2015

Academic Editor: Zhiwu Li

Copyright © 2015 Chao Wu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


We proposed a model of the train rear-end collision accidents based on stochastic Petri nets (SPN) theory. By isomorphic Markov chain model of the proposed accident model, we provide the quantitative analysis of the train rear-end collision accidents. Fuzzy random method is also applied to analyze the performance of the proposed model. In addition, according to the data extracted from a large amount of historical data of the accident statistics, we present a case analysis and discussion. It showed that the results of the proposed train rear-end accident model based on SPN are reasonable in practical applications and can be used to effectively analyze the accidents and prevent loss, and the results may be a reference to the department of railway safety management.