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Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Volume 2015, Article ID 921480, 9 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/921480
Research Article

An Optimization Method of Time Window Based on Travel Time and Reliability

1College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310058, China
2Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310058, China
3Hangzhou Hualong Traffic Survey and Design Ltd., Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310000, China

Received 15 July 2015; Revised 10 September 2015; Accepted 14 September 2015

Academic Editor: Jason Gu

Copyright © 2015 Fengjie Fu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

The dynamic change of urban road travel time was analyzed using video image detector data, and it showed cyclic variation, so the signal cycle length at the upstream intersection was conducted as the basic unit of time window; there was some evidence of bimodality in the actual travel time distributions; therefore, the fitting parameters of the travel time bimodal distribution were estimated using the EM algorithm. Then the weighted average value of the two means was indicated as the travel time estimation value, and the Modified Buffer Time Index (MBIT) was expressed as travel time variability; based on the characteristics of travel time change and MBIT along with different time windows, the time window was optimized dynamically for minimum MBIT, requiring that the travel time change be lower than the threshold value and traffic incidents can be detected real time; finally, travel times on Shandong Road in Qingdao were estimated every 10 s, 120 s, optimal time windows, and 480 s and the comparisons demonstrated that travel time estimation in optimal time windows can exactly and steadily reflect the real-time traffic. It verifies the effectiveness of the optimization method.