Risk Analysis for Cascade Reservoirs Collapse Based on Bayesian Networks under the Combined Action of Flood and Landslide Surge

Table 10

Probability of two-reservoir collapse for the various combinations of typical cases (under the combined action of flood and landslide surge).

Number of combined cases	Houziyan reservoir			Changheba reservoir			Overtopping probability due to dam-break flood,	Probability of Changheba reservoir dam overtopping	Joint probability of two reservoirs collapse
	Upstream flood	Water level	Posterior probability	Interval flood	Water level	Posterior probability
I	Designed	Normal	0.227	Designed	Normal	0.273	0.8075	0.0133	1.09 × 10^−15
II	Designed	Normal	0.225	Designed	Check	0.275	0.8981	0.0150	1.38 × 10^−15
III	Designed	Check	0.251	Designed	Normal	0.249	0.8075	0.0146	1.46 × 10^−15
IV	Designed	Check	0.249	Designed	Check	0.251	0.8981	0.0164	1.84 × 10^−15