Risk Analysis for Cascade Reservoirs Collapse Based on Bayesian Networks under the Combined Action of Flood and Landslide Surge

Table 9

Probabilities for a single reservoir dam overtopping as a result of the combined action of flood and landslide surge.

Reservoir	Reservoir water level		Probability of flood causing dam overtopping				Probability of dam overtopping due to landslide surge		Probability of a single reservoir dam overtopping
	Case	Value (m)	Probability of occurrence of flood			Conditional probability of flood causing dam overtopping	Probability of occurrence of landslide surge	Conditional probability of dam overtopping
			Case	Flow (m^3/s)	Probability
Houziyan	Normal	1842	Designed	7550	0.001	1.70 × 10^−06	0.0387	0.1936	0.0075
	Check	1845.41	Designed	7550	0.001	2.10 × 10^−06	0.0387	0.2352	0.0091
Changheba	Normal	1690	Designed	7650	0.001	1.40 × 10^−06	0.0387	0.1884	0.0073
	Check	1694.6	Designed	7650	0.001	1.70 × 10^−06	0.0387	0.2126	0.0082