A Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and the Cuckoo Search Algorithm: A Case Study for Power Load

Table 6

Comparison of power load forecasting result by using different methods on Thursday, Apr. 24, 2008, from New South Wales.

	Time	0:00	2:00	4:00	6:00	8:00	10:00	12:00	14:00	16:00	18:00	20:00	22:00	Average
BPNN	AE	−83.6894	−49.7095	42.2092	70.1483	−1.1418	81.1176	71.0641	−6.3979	−83.6375	70.2015	−74.2667	68.5518	−10.0773
	MAE	139.0489	107.2347	115.6315	153.4157	181.8889	201.3444	189.9489	186.2829	187.2521	163.6832	160.6981	127.2364	161.7255
	MSE	20126.81	11597.8	13753.41	23870.75	33776.23	41545.23	37131.99	34961.75	35301.52	27696.51	25909.11	16227.94	27452.27
	MAPE	1.7927	1.5953	1.6655	1.7118	1.8221	1.9574	1.8205	1.7860	1.8178	1.7268	1.7671	1.5004	1.7795
GABPNN	AE	−70.5662	−61.4181	14.0903	−5.1011	70.2694	−93.49	62.9971	−5.0262	−175.466	9.4920	87.4908	14.0313	3.7326
	MAE	133.1993	118.7066	120.9694	156.3609	168.3905	175.0163	159.27	175.0882	175.4656	142.1779	169.1021	135.8504	149.0696
	MSE	17861.21	14198.39	14907.39	24782.75	28896.06	30696.38	25765.8	30889.71	31099.72	20391.04	28608.41	18670.9	22988.39
	MAPE	1.7178	1.7651	1.7397	1.7443	1.687962	1.7025	1.5259	1.6792	1.6996	1.4971	1.8594	1.6012	1.6436
WNN	AE	−94.9552	11.0611	86.5661	109.4117	129.0671	−120.256	−133.083	−6.5916	−114.111	−121.37	114.9819	−97.3915	1.46853
	MAE	189.6161	163.6107	182.5346	226.7625	249.978	261.0484	274.6263	247.5517	241.1515	223.7553	230.5013	215.3979	219.2263
	MSE	36049.23	26940.16	33456.37	51459.93	62579.29	68421.2	75544.98	61478.9	58389.42	50583.32	53412.08	46583	49476.49
	MAPE	2.4456	2.4343	2.6249	2.5296	2.5013	2.5395	2.6342	2.3707	2.3368	2.3564	2.5336	2.5407	2.4141
CSAWNN	AE	−21.5793	74.9257	−92.6562	−121.433	−242.688	−4.1947	112.5843	−99.8578	108.9015	−117.485	9.2803	18.8441	0.6051
	MAE	187.2812	162.3261	159.9964	230.9195	242.688	234.3061	254.4321	244.3948	207.1397	244.4175	200.3291	213.4906	212.3467
	MSE	35548.74	26522.19	25927.18	53405.7	60342	55413.93	65290.47	60673.03	43149.33	60030.08	40539.89	45950.18	46910.12
	MAPE	2.4171	2.4145	2.3015	2.5755	2.4308	2.2807	2.4378	2.3433	2.0082	2.5742	2.2039	2.5175	2.3373
ARIMA	AE	−215.208	165.0423	7.8473	8.6388	−561.165	316.2328	−273.573	24.7401	313.4157	212.8736	210.3343	−0.2804	11.1686
	MAE	482.1711	333.4499	400.0869	495.5127	561.1652	628.2508	580.8741	607.6131	624.4892	463.577	453.6873	432.3235	507.6683
	MSE	234075.7	112032	162067.4	257238.9	322221.9	396897.3	341886.4	369861.6	394541.8	216189.5	206839.9	190582.5	268746.7
	MAPE	6.2181	4.9614	5.7564	5.5391	5.6139	6.1119	5.5704	5.8302	6.0641	4.8836	4.9889	5.0989	5.5872
ENN	AE	−134.3503	−116.9724	26.1762	−9.5096	134.8336	−177.9787	121.4220	−9.2200	−334.7105	17.6777	166.4174	26.0920	7.1333
	MAE	254.0135	226.2179	230.6157	298.0677	321.2936	333.8439	304.7279	334.1142	334.7105	272.1785	321.8414	259.5614	284.6262
	MSE	64935.4893	51544.7643	54128.8887	89996.8881	105084.4741	111677.8252	94240.0696	112436.8781	113110.3356	74693.6074	103626.7463	68117.7863	83742.8823
	MAPE	3.2760	3.3639	3.3167	3.3253	3.2205	3.2476	2.9197	3.2042	3.2422	2.8661	3.5391	3.0595	3.1381
RBFNN	AE	−73.9591	−57.3006	1.4359	−115.7463	−11.4324	−103.9494	−69.3536	80.0282	145.0666	−90.0793	−80.4687	−4.8787	−31.7198
	MAE	122.8559	107.0627	125.1804	199.8651	161.9459	204.8784	190.0733	161.0021	145.0666	178.5049	152.1063	180.7679	160.7758
	MSE	15669.7874	11588.6074	15777.1354	40494.5143	26595.7994	43189.1618	37331.3576	26588.7852	21332.3809	31894.7300	23497.2824	33025.1939	27248.7280
	MAPE	1.7706	1.5996	1.4716	2.0627	1.5745	1.9708	1.8099	1.6528	1.5475	2.0890	2.0250	2.4029	1.8314
EMD-CSAWNN	AE	−5.8199	−40.1789	3.2302	−53.9029	0.3157	56.8411	−1.4835	−2.3791	−58.6926	−55.7161	−59.25	55.1392	−9.7616
	MAE	92.57402	83.04634	83.72504	106.387	120.3944	124.3859	128.0547	123.5589	124.0705	116.6259	111.4998	102.3642	109.1557
	MSE	8608.774	6911.941	7025.682	11341.53	14539.97	15513.36	16423.82	15278.06	15453.49	13635.16	12451.61	10503	12183.36
	MAPE	1.1938	1.2355	1.2045	1.1866	1.2037	1.2096	1.2272	1.1836	1.2016	1.2293	1.2265	1.2071	1.2025