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Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Volume 2016 (2016), Article ID 3968324, 10 pages
Research Article

Dynamic Heat Supply Prediction Using Support Vector Regression Optimized by Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

School of Environment Science and Engineering, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China

Received 31 December 2015; Revised 30 March 2016; Accepted 11 April 2016

Academic Editor: Antonino Laudani

Copyright © 2016 Meiping Wang and Qi Tian. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


We developed an effective intelligent model to predict the dynamic heat supply of heat source. A hybrid forecasting method was proposed based on support vector regression (SVR) model-optimized particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithms. Due to the interaction of meteorological conditions and the heating parameters of heating system, it is extremely difficult to forecast dynamic heat supply. Firstly, the correlations among heat supply and related influencing factors in the heating system were analyzed through the correlation analysis of statistical theory. Then, the SVR model was employed to forecast dynamic heat supply. In the model, the input variables were selected based on the correlation analysis and three crucial parameters, including the penalties factor, gamma of the kernel RBF, and insensitive loss function, were optimized by PSO algorithms. The optimized SVR model was compared with the basic SVR, optimized genetic algorithm-SVR (GA-SVR), and artificial neural network (ANN) through six groups of experiment data from two heat sources. The results of the correlation coefficient analysis revealed the relationship between the influencing factors and the forecasted heat supply and determined the input variables. The performance of the PSO-SVR model is superior to those of the other three models. The PSO-SVR method is statistically robust and can be applied to practical heating system.