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Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Volume 2017, Article ID 3513980, 7 pages
https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/3513980
Research Article

Sunspots Time-Series Prediction Based on Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Wavelet Neural Network

School of Electronic Engineering, Xi’an University of Posts and Telecommunications, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710121, China

Correspondence should be addressed to Guohui Li; moc.361@dchgl

Received 25 January 2017; Accepted 2 March 2017; Published 16 March 2017

Academic Editor: Tomasz Kapitaniak

Copyright © 2017 Guohui Li and Siliang Wang. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

The sunspot numbers are the major target which describes the solar activity level. Long-term prediction of sunspot activity is of great importance for aerospace, communication, disaster prevention, and so on. To improve the prediction accuracy of sunspot time series, the prediction model based on complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) and wavelet neural network (WNN) is proposed. First, the sunspot time series are decomposed by CEEMD to obtain a set of intrinsic modal functions (IMFs). Then, the IMFs and residuals are reconstructed to obtain the training samples and the prediction samples, and these samples are trained and predicted by WNN. Finally, the reconstructed IMFs and residuals are the final prediction results. Five kinds of prediction models are compared, which are BP neural network prediction model, WNN prediction model, empirical mode decomposition and WNN hybrid prediction model, ensemble empirical mode decomposition and WNN hybrid prediction model, and the proposed method in this paper. The same sunspot time series are predicted with five kinds of prediction models. The experimental results show that the proposed model has better prediction accuracy and smaller error.