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Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Volume 2017, Article ID 6263726, 10 pages
Research Article

Predicting Real-Time Crash Risk for Urban Expressways in China

1Research Institute of Highway, Ministry of Transport, 8 Xitucheng Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100088, China
2School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Beihang University, 37 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China

Correspondence should be addressed to Miaomiao Liu; moc.361@5060-oaimuil

Received 24 August 2016; Revised 18 November 2016; Accepted 30 November 2016; Published 30 January 2017

Academic Editor: Gennaro N. Bifulco

Copyright © 2017 Miaomiao Liu and Yongsheng Chen. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


We developed a real-time crash risk prediction model for urban expressways in China in this study. About two-year crash data and their matching traffic sensor data from the Beijing section of Jingha expressway were utilized for this research. The traffic data in six 5-minute intervals between 0 and 30 minutes prior to crash occurrence was extracted, respectively. To obtain the appropriate data training period, the data (in each 5-minute interval) during six different periods was collected as training data, respectively, and the crash risk value under different data conditions was defined. Then we proposed a new real-time crash risk prediction model using decision tree method and adaptive neural network fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). By comparing several real-time crash risk prediction methods, it was found that our proposed method had higher precision than others. And the training error and testing error were minimum (0.280 and 0.291, resp.) when the data during 0 to 30 minutes prior to crash occurrence was collected and the decision tree-ANFIS method was applied to train and establish the real-time crash risk prediction model. The prediction accuracy of the crash occurrence could reach 65% when 0.60 was considered as the crash prediction threshold.