A Small-Sample Adaptive Hybrid Model for Annual Electricity Consumption Forecasting

Table 1

Real electricity consumption data from 1991 to 2014, the forecasting results of ANN, GM(1, 1), and AHM, and the relative errors.

	RD	ANN	RE	GM(1, 1)	RE	AHM	RE
1991	677.49	664.85	−1.87	685.29	1.15	678.26	0.11
1992	754.19	711.51	−5.66	740.8	−1.78	736.05	−2.41
1993	836.43	798.96	−4.48	812.09	−2.91	814.48	−2.62
1994	927.88	904.8	−2.49	896.53	−3.38	899.4	−3.07
1995	1006.95	1022.21	1.52	995.72	−1.12	996.31	−1.06
1996	1079.36	1109.58	2.8	1096.34	1.57	1089.81	0.97
1997	1134.2	1170.05	3.16	1192.98	5.18	1179.6	4
1998	1157.7	1192.83	3.03	1273.03	9.96	1247.48	7.76
1999	1233.14	1175.92	−4.64	1317.55	6.85	1262.31	2.37
2000	1368.48	1212.55	−11.39	1364.19	−0.31	1329.46	−2.85
2001	1483.86	1350.35	−9	1448.81	−2.36	1448.71	−2.37
2002	1633.15	1546.41	−5.31	1554.46	−4.82	1557.41	−4.64
2003	1903.16	1768.33	−7.08	1697.36	−10.81	1696.14	−10.88
2004	2197.14	2178.16	−0.86	1944.53	−11.5	1955.75	−10.99
2005	2494.04	2640.28	5.86	2284.09	−8.42	2317.58	−7.08
2006	2858.8	2984.72	4.4	2684.31	−6.1	2718.92	−4.89
2007	3271.18	3324.53	1.63	3151.88	−3.65	3176.78	−2.89
2008	3454.14	3670.65	6.27	3665.48	6.12	3658.83	5.93
2009	3703.22	3666.77	−0.98	4037.55	9.03	3906.75	5.5
2010	4193.45	3731.66	−11.01	4347.19	3.67	4170.84	−0.54
2011	4700.09	4154.32	−11.61	4749.84	1.06	4649.36	−1.08
2012	4976.26	4794.79	−3.65	5217.07	4.84	5170.92	3.91
2013	5420.34	5180.37	−4.43	5597.49	3.27	5471.63	0.95
2014	5638.37	5623.90	−0.26	6020.41	6.78	5923.45	5.06