Table of Contents Author Guidelines Submit a Manuscript
Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Volume 2017 (2017), Article ID 8481708, 10 pages
https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/8481708
Research Article

System Dynamic Model for Simulating Demand-Supply Interaction of Railway Express Freight System

School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China

Correspondence should be addressed to Xingchen Zhang

Received 3 July 2017; Revised 8 October 2017; Accepted 25 October 2017; Published 27 November 2017

Academic Editor: Anna M. Gil-Lafuente

Copyright © 2017 Lingli Wang and Xingchen Zhang. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Express freight transportation is a rich seam of profit for China railway, and railway express freight system is a complex system with multiple variables and nonlinear feedback loops. This paper presents a System Dynamic Model for simulating the interaction between demand and supply of railway express freight system in China. The model consists of three submodels including economic environment, demand, supply, and investment, and its validity is verified by running in Vensim DDS software using historical data. In the simulation of period 2000–2025, the three variables are taken as control variables including growth rate of the national economy, railway express freight rate, and investment in fixed railway assets. Three scenarios for each control variable are simulated, and their effects are analyzed to provide beneficial reference for regulating the demand-supply gap of railway express freight. The simulation demonstrated that raising freight rate, adding investment in fixed railway assets, and decelerating economic growth rate are all effective ways to shrink the demand-supply gap of railway express freight. The model can be used to forecast the transport demand of railway express freight and test the outcomes of demand-supply regulating measures.