Monthly Electricity Consumption Forecasting Method Based on X12 and STL Decomposition Model in an Integrated Energy System

Table 2

Confidence interval for the lag order of the VAR model.

Lag	Log L	LR	FPE	AIC	SC	HQ
0	−919.8341	NA	45308.415	25.60650	25.66974	25.63168
1	−519.9274	766.4878	7581.285	14.60910	14.79882	14.68462
2	−392.8206	236.5599	248.1805	11.18946	11.50567	11.31534
3	−322.0301	127.8163	38.84761	9.334168	9.776853	9.510403
4	−304.8392	30.08404	26.96743	8.967755	9.536922	9.194342
5	−295.4543	15.90214	23.27183	8.818175	9.513823	9.095115
6	−293.7491	2.794622	24.88266	8.881920	9.704049	9.209212
7	−277.5902	25.58493	17.82851	8.544173	9.492784	8.921818
8	−273.6755	5.980746	17.97444	8.546543	9.621635	8.974540
9	−273.2689	0.598628	20.00905	8.646359	9.847933	9.124709
10	−266.7881	9.181128	18.85117	8.577448	9.905503	9.106151
11	−257.7192	12.34380	16.56391	8.436645	9.891182	9.015701
12	−255.9084	2.364098	17.84887	8.497456	10.07847	9.126864