Novel Network Public Opinion Prediction and Guidance Model Based on “S-Curve”: Taking the Loss of Contact with “Malaysia Airlines”
Table 2
Advantages and disadvantages of the three models.
Model
Principle
Advantage
Disadvantage
Model 1 (m1)
“S-curve”
Suitable for forecasting in any period
The nonlinear fitting ability is weak, and the fitting effect is not ideal
Model 2 (m2)
Improved jump double “S-curve”
Fitting effect and prediction effect are very good
The establishment of the model is based on the independence of local laws, and the segmentation point needs to be established in advance
Model 3 (m3)
Improved gradual double “S-curve”
It is suitable for forecasting in any period and can reflect the inner relationship and inner law of things
The use of differential processing reduces the fitting progress to a certain extent; the deviation is large when mid- and long-term prediction is made; the analytical formula of the differential equation is not easy to obtain, and the numerical solution should be used instead
