Research Article

Compound Grey-Logistic Model and Its Application

Table 9

Absolute percentage error (APE) of different forecasting models.

Time (month/year)Grey forecast (%)Logistic forecast (%)Grey-logistic forecast (%)AR(1) forecast (%)ARMA (1, 1) forecast (%)

2/188.4115.388.4145.7819.34
3/184.478.043.7032.5412.14
4/1810.6512.179.9341.0717.54
5/186.465.825.8634.0712.29
6/182.950.362.4530.138.01
7/189.8913.8110.2514.265.85
8/1815.3120.5215.599.7511.85
9/184.1311.694.3825.460.57
10/186.843.376.6436.1310.44
11/1812.330.2512.1840.0315.73
12/188.105.718.0233.2811.02
1/1916.490.1816.4644.1519.24
2/193.8119.003.7817.281.84
3/198.3710.318.4536.2110.23
4/1911.1227.6911.029.089.88
5/192.4118.092.5530.033.50
6/196.7916.006.9731.667.58
7/197.3328.317.1513.116.94
8/1915.5535.7315.385.5315.47
9/1920.9340.7920.750.4321.11
10/1917.0238.8616.836.6417.47
11/1918.1640.6517.963.8218.86
12/199.4221.889.6938.878.14
1/2010.2036.889.987.4311.54
2/2056.948.6257.3194.3354.10
3/203.6434.323.428.635.68
4/2012.5824.4212.8236.779.84
5/201.7232.731.9219.811.07
6/204.0132.224.2024.420.84
7/2016.1125.4516.2837.9612.20
8/200.3336.510.4516.623.36
9/205.0640.784.9812.988.84
10/205.5841.955.5313.289.62
11/205.5542.755.5413.159.88
12/2016.5230.3616.4839.2210.81
1/211.0140.470.9215.804.24
Mean10.1722.8410.1225.5511.31