Research Article
Compound Grey-Logistic Model and Its Application
Table 9
Absolute percentage error (APE) of different forecasting models.
| Time (month/year) | Grey forecast (%) | Logistic forecast (%) | Grey-logistic forecast (%) | AR(1) forecast (%) | ARMA (1, 1) forecast (%) |
| 2/18 | 8.41 | 15.38 | 8.41 | 45.78 | 19.34 | 3/18 | 4.47 | 8.04 | 3.70 | 32.54 | 12.14 | 4/18 | 10.65 | 12.17 | 9.93 | 41.07 | 17.54 | 5/18 | 6.46 | 5.82 | 5.86 | 34.07 | 12.29 | 6/18 | 2.95 | 0.36 | 2.45 | 30.13 | 8.01 | 7/18 | 9.89 | 13.81 | 10.25 | 14.26 | 5.85 | 8/18 | 15.31 | 20.52 | 15.59 | 9.75 | 11.85 | 9/18 | 4.13 | 11.69 | 4.38 | 25.46 | 0.57 | 10/18 | 6.84 | 3.37 | 6.64 | 36.13 | 10.44 | 11/18 | 12.33 | 0.25 | 12.18 | 40.03 | 15.73 | 12/18 | 8.10 | 5.71 | 8.02 | 33.28 | 11.02 | 1/19 | 16.49 | 0.18 | 16.46 | 44.15 | 19.24 | 2/19 | 3.81 | 19.00 | 3.78 | 17.28 | 1.84 | 3/19 | 8.37 | 10.31 | 8.45 | 36.21 | 10.23 | 4/19 | 11.12 | 27.69 | 11.02 | 9.08 | 9.88 | 5/19 | 2.41 | 18.09 | 2.55 | 30.03 | 3.50 | 6/19 | 6.79 | 16.00 | 6.97 | 31.66 | 7.58 | 7/19 | 7.33 | 28.31 | 7.15 | 13.11 | 6.94 | 8/19 | 15.55 | 35.73 | 15.38 | 5.53 | 15.47 | 9/19 | 20.93 | 40.79 | 20.75 | 0.43 | 21.11 | 10/19 | 17.02 | 38.86 | 16.83 | 6.64 | 17.47 | 11/19 | 18.16 | 40.65 | 17.96 | 3.82 | 18.86 | 12/19 | 9.42 | 21.88 | 9.69 | 38.87 | 8.14 | 1/20 | 10.20 | 36.88 | 9.98 | 7.43 | 11.54 | 2/20 | 56.94 | 8.62 | 57.31 | 94.33 | 54.10 | 3/20 | 3.64 | 34.32 | 3.42 | 8.63 | 5.68 | 4/20 | 12.58 | 24.42 | 12.82 | 36.77 | 9.84 | 5/20 | 1.72 | 32.73 | 1.92 | 19.81 | 1.07 | 6/20 | 4.01 | 32.22 | 4.20 | 24.42 | 0.84 | 7/20 | 16.11 | 25.45 | 16.28 | 37.96 | 12.20 | 8/20 | 0.33 | 36.51 | 0.45 | 16.62 | 3.36 | 9/20 | 5.06 | 40.78 | 4.98 | 12.98 | 8.84 | 10/20 | 5.58 | 41.95 | 5.53 | 13.28 | 9.62 | 11/20 | 5.55 | 42.75 | 5.54 | 13.15 | 9.88 | 12/20 | 16.52 | 30.36 | 16.48 | 39.22 | 10.81 | 1/21 | 1.01 | 40.47 | 0.92 | 15.80 | 4.24 | Mean | 10.17 | 22.84 | 10.12 | 25.55 | 11.31 |
|
|