Integration of Interpretive Structural Modeling with Fuzzy Bayesian Network for Risk Assessment of Tunnel Collapse

Table 11

Occurrence probability, posterior probability, and ranking of each factor.

Total index	Factor	Probability of occurrence		Posterior probability
		Yes	Rank	Yes	Probability change	Rank
Geological aspects	Y1	0.651	1	0.662	0.011	4
	Y2	0.265	4	0.269	0.004	10
	Y3	0.108	13	0.114	0.006	8
	Y4	0.154	9	0.154	0.000	14
	Y5	0.071	15	0.071	0.000	14
	Y6	0.324	2	0.325	0.001	12
Survey and design aspects	Y7	0.157	8	0.157	0.000	14
	Y8	0.077	14	0.087	0.010	5
Construction aspects	Y9	0.234	5	0.244	0.010	5
	Y10	0.140	12	0.161	0.021	3
	Y11	0.146	11	0.155	0.009	7
	Y12	0.154	10	0.263	0.109	2
	Y13	0.212	6	0.374	0.162	1
Organizational management aspects	Y14	0.160	7	0.166	0.006	8
	Y15	0.068	16	0.069	0.001	12
	Y16	0.044	17	0.044	0.000	14
Natural aspects	Y17	0.271	3	0.273	0.002	11