Research Article

Selection of Stationarity Tests for Time Series Forecasting Using Reliability Analysis

Table 1

Performance comparison of stationarity tests.

ADFMerit(i) Test is reliable for high time series length.
Demerits(i) Calculates low power for a smaller time series length, often resulting in unit root conclusions even for a stationary time series
(ii) Inappropriate choice of lag number adversely affects the test results
Suggestion(i) Reliable for apt selection of lag number

KPSSMerits(i) Test is nonparametric
(ii) Test outcome indicates stationary if the time series is strongly stationary
Demerit(i) The test statistic is vulnerable to type-I errors lowering the test’s reliability
Suggestion(i) Reliable for low time series lengths and recommended to be used along with another test

PPMerits(i) Test is reliable for high time series lengths
(ii) Test is nonparametric
Demerit(i) Low reliability for small and moderately large time series lengths due to severe size distortions
Suggestion(i) Reliable for higher time series lengths and shorter time series lengths having low parameter value

BreitungMerits(i) Reliable for any time series length
(ii) Test result is unbiased by any time series characteristics
Demerit(i) Fails to detect the presence of unit root for  = 1 in absence of other nonstationary components for lower lengths
Suggestion(i) The test is helpful in accurately understanding the impacts of trend, seasonality, and volatility effects through test results

MKMerit(i) Presence of the slightest trend component can be effectively detected
Demerit(i) Test is not reliable, particularly for higher time series length
Suggestion(i) Test cannot be solely used for assessing stationarity

Levene’sMerit(i) Completely reliable
Demerits(i) Test is parametric
(ii) Cannot detect the presence of trend component if the variance is constant throughout
Suggestion(i) Test is very effective for assessing variance and is recommended for use with some other tests for trend assessment

KWMerits(i) Test is nonparametric
(ii)Test is fairly reliable for higher time series lengths
Demerits(i) Cannot detect small differences in mean values
(ii) Low reliability for lower time series lengths
Suggestion(i) Recommended for use with higher time series lengths

SWMerits(i) Test is reliable
(ii) Best performing test in all normality tests
Demerits(i) Nonstationary outcome does not mean that the time series is not stationary
(ii) Low reliability with respect to skewness
(iii) Significant type-I error for 0 kurtosis
Suggestion(i) This test is to be used first. If the test outcome is nonstationary, then other tests are to be used

KSMerit(i) Test is nonparametric (two-way) and low type-I errors
Demerit(i) Very low reliability with respect to skewness and kurtosis
Suggestion(i) Two-way KS test is useful for stationarity assessment, but the use of other tests for confirmation of results is recommended