Functional Data Approach for Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting

Table 4

Hourly forecasting errors for the electricity demand using FAR (p), FARX (p), and AR (7) models.

Hour	Errors	FAR (p)	FARX (p)	AR (7)
1	MAE	959.445	703.908	1148.178
	MAPE	4.622	1.962	6.883
	RMSE	1298.152	896.126	1570.79
2	MAE	882.311	651.484	1096.252
	MAPE	4.3078	1.837	8.107
	RMSE	1157.836	856.842	1586.941
3	MAE	972.551	694.933	1079.363
	MAPE	5.335	1.969	10.089
	RMSE	1231.743	919.493	1563.431
4	MAE	1239.432	723.064	1813.955
	MAPE	6.248	2.044	10.190
	RMSE	1271.563	966.133	1912.950
5	MAE	1006.819	770.735	1518.308
	MAPE	7.269	2.146	8.461
	RMSE	1484.161	1122.134	1545.184
6	MAE	907.918	877.436	1068.968
	MAPE	7.896	3.376	10.272
	RMSE	1643.787	1162.124	1980.238
7	MAE	1432.725	1198.624	1972.094
	MAPE	7.119	3.015	9.938
	RMSE	1786.485	1630.914	2363.881
8	MAE	1693.734	1428.419	2078.932
	MAPE	6.174	3.4	7.917
	RMSE	2299.992	1677.427	2824.99
9	MAE	1870.895	1380.534	2068.726
	MAPE	5.177	3.214	6.686
	RMSE	1918.816	1317.062	2392.004
10	MAE	1727.977	1303.522	1995.832
	MAPE	4.577	3.007	6.538
	RMSE	2024.748	1791.135	2576.147
11	MAE	1641.929	1278.96	1937.907
	MAPE	4.805	2.952	5.295
	RMSE	1931.604	1332.259	2379.148
12	MAE	1712.408	1279.819	2070.237
	MAPE	4.752	2.969	8.598
	RMSE	1956.912	1699.01	2492.603
13	MAE	1504.971	1250.954	1835.173
	MAPE	4.684	2.92	5.283
	RMSE	1983.986	1642.144	2452.337
14	MAE	1689.184	1240.922	1910.258
	MAPE	4.877	2.903	6.259
	RMSE	2106.195	1657.013	2541.691
15	MAE	1369.619	1026.713	1574.099
	MAPE	5.89	2.874	9.283
	RMSE	1778.669	1373.866	2319.12
16	MAE	1445.284	1020.28	1737.731
	MAPE	4.728	2.852	7.031
	RMSE	1768.346	1650.832	2249.522
17	MAE	1340.768	922.193	1711.119
	MAPE	5.731	3.82	5.927
	RMSE	1621.013	1123.776	2061.409
18	MAE	1401.959	1204.152	1662.161
	MAPE	6.144	2.758	6.775
	RMSE	1812.923	1566.042	2338.134
19	MAE	1314.433	1151.899	1657.877
	MAPE	5.952	2.62	6.732
	RMSE	1790.024	1564.745	2149.795
20	MAE	1405.25	1227.078	1648.65
	MAPE	3.955	2.753	5.77
	RMSE	2213.671	1685.073	2643.688
21	MAE	1526.528	1292.226	1989.541
	MAPE	4.273	2.952	7.782
	RMSE	2273.498	1773.176	2931.271
22	MAE	1540.723	1316.039	1971.014
	MAPE	4.432	3.09	7.624
	RMSE	1954.12	1765.161	2354.609
23	MAE	1721.727	1280.923	2252.269
	MAPE	4.829	3.124	6.978
	RMSE	1851.848	1686.158	2360.295
24	MAE	1820.898	1391.192	2567.675
	MAPE	7.79	3.102	10.543
	RMSE	1781.021	1532.95	2145.987