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Malaria Research and Treatment
Volume 2017 (2017), Article ID 7820454, 8 pages
https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/7820454
Research Article

A Weather-Based Prediction Model of Malaria Prevalence in Amenfi West District, Ghana

1Department of Theoretical and Applied Biology, College of Science, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
2Department of Biodiversity Conservation and Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, University for Development Studies, Nyankpala Campus, Tamale, Ghana

Correspondence should be addressed to Esther Love Darkoh

Received 14 October 2016; Accepted 15 January 2017; Published 31 January 2017

Academic Editor: Robert Novak

Copyright © 2017 Esther Love Darkoh et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

This study investigated the effects of climatic variables, particularly, rainfall and temperature, on malaria incidence using time series analysis. Our preliminary analysis revealed that malaria incidence in the study area decreased at about 0.35% annually. Also, the month of November recorded approximately 21% more malaria cases than the other months while September had a decreased effect of about 14%. The forecast model developed for this investigation indicated that mean minimum () and maximum () monthly temperatures lagged at three months were significant predictors of malaria incidence while rainfall was not. Diagnostic tests using Ljung-Box and ARCH-LM tests revealed that the model developed was adequate for forecasting. Forecast values for 2016 to 2020 generated by our model suggest a possible future decline in malaria incidence. This goes to suggest that intervention strategies put in place by some nongovernmental and governmental agencies to combat the disease are effective and thus should be encouraged and routinely monitored to yield more desirable outcomes.