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Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations
Volume 2017 (2017), Article ID 2480940, 9 pages
https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/2480940
Research Article

Study on the Confidence and Reliability of the Mean Seismic Probability Risk Model

1School of Civil Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, China
2Key Lab of Structures Dynamic Behavior and Control of China Ministry of Education, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, China
3State Key Laboratory for Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China

Correspondence should be addressed to Da-Gang Lu

Received 26 November 2016; Revised 26 January 2017; Accepted 30 July 2017; Published 10 October 2017

Academic Editor: Eugenijus Ušpuras

Copyright © 2017 Xiao-Lei Wang and Da-Gang Lu. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

The mean seismic probability risk model has widely been used in seismic design and safety evaluation of critical infrastructures. In this paper, the confidence levels analysis and error equations derivation of the mean seismic probability risk model are conducted. It has been found that the confidence levels and error values of the mean seismic probability risk model are changed for different sites and that the confidence levels are low and the error values are large for most sites. Meanwhile, the confidence levels of ASCE/SEI 43-05 design parameters are analyzed and the error equation of achieved performance probabilities based on ASCE/SEI 43-05 is also obtained. It is found that the confidence levels for design results obtained using ASCE/SEI 43-05 criteria are not high, which are less than 95%, while the high confidence level of the uniform risk could not be achieved using ASCE/SEI 43-05 criteria and the error values between risk model with target confidence level and mean risk model using ASCE/SEI 43-05 criteria are large for some sites. It is suggested that the seismic risk model considering high confidence levels instead of the mean seismic probability risk model should be used in the future.