Research on the Food Security Condition and Food Supply Capacity of Egypt

Table 7

Per capita grain possession and assurance rate^a in different scenario groups of Egypt.

Year		2015		2020		2025		2030
Cultivated area	Grain yield	Po^b; (kg/person)	AR^c; (%)	Po; (kg/person)	AR; (%)	Po; (kg/person)	AR; (%)	Po; (kg/person)	AR; (%)
High	High	335.23 ^d	0.84	325.87	0.81	308.02	0.77	291.14	0.73
	Mid	323.04	0.81	299.82	0.75	270.58	0.68	244.18	0.61
	Low	312.68	0.78	283.51	0.71	249.96	0.62	220.39	0.55
Mid	High	312.02	0.78	294.92	0.74	278.77	0.70	263.49	0.66
	Mid	300.68	0.75	271.35	0.68	244.88	0.61	221.00	0.55
	Low	291.03	0.73	256.59	0.64	226.23	0.57	199.46	0.50
Low	High	300.82	0.75	271.63	0.68	245.28	0.61	221.48	0.55
	Mid	289.88	0.72	249.92	0.62	215.46	0.54	185.76	0.46
	Low	280.58	0.70	236.32	0.59	199.05	0.50	167.66	0.42

Note: ^a400 kg per capita per year was regarded as a threshold for food security. Many scholars considered 400 kg per capita as assumed to represent a threshold of cereal supply for sustained economic growth.
^bPo is short for per capita grain possession.
^cAR is short for assurance rate, which is the percentage of per capita grain possession on 400 kg [34].
^dFigures in bold indicated the extreme scenarios of per capita grain possession.