Research Article
Shrinking Regions in a Shrinking Country: The Geography of Population Decline in Lithuania 2001–2011
Table 2
Linear regression model of percentage population change at the
seniūnija level (
).
| | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | Model 5 | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Locational characteristics (ref = rural areas) | | | | | | | | | | | 3 largest cities | 13.540 | | 5.739 | | 10.440 | | −1.297 | −0.022 | −10.784 | | Areas within 15 km from 3 largest cities | 31.404 | | 26.807 | | 26.632 | | 17.243 | | 13.675 | | Other cities | 5.999 | | 0.301 | 0.006 | 1.186 | 0.024 | −4.416 | −0.091 | −2.133 | −0.044 | Areas within 15 km from medium cities | 9.479 | | 7.394 | | 7.365 | | 4.588 | | 3.27 | | Areas within 15 km from smaller cities | 3.885 | | 2.865 | | 2.419 | 0.080 | 1.639 | 0.054 | 1.342 | 0.044 | Sociodemographic characteristics | | | | | | | | | | | Percentage of working-age population, 2001 | | | 0.631 | | 0.129 | 0.045 | −0.354 | −0.125 | −0.216 | −0.076 | Percentage of households with children, 2001 | | | | | 0.431 | | 0.709 | | 0.726 | | Socioeconomic characteristics | | | | | | | | | | | Percentage of university education, 2001 | | | | | | | 0.517 | | 0.436 | | Change in the percentage of university education, 2001–2011 | | | | | | | 1.791 | | 1.322 | | Percentage of employed, 2001 | | | | | | | | | 0.207 | | Percentage of employment in business services, 2001 | | | | | | | | | 1.596 | | Change in the percentage of employment in business services, 2001–2011 | | | | | | | | | 5.773 | | Percentage of high-ranking occupation, 2001 | | | | | | | | | −0.269 | |
| Constant | −20.715 | | −57.705 | | −42.546 | | −40.451 | | −56.005 | | | 0.432 | | 0.453 | | 0.475 | | 0.576 | | 0.633 | | (df), significance | 540 (5), 0.000 | | 539 (6), 0.000 | | 538 (7), 0.000 | | 536 (9), 0.000 | | 532 (13), 0.000 | | Residual sum of squares (total 107 440) | 61 004 | | 58 747 | | 56 390 | | 45 508 | | 39 389 | |
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