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Applied Computational Intelligence and Soft Computing
Volume 2012 (2012), Article ID 794061, 13 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2012/794061
Research Article

Standard Precipitation Index Drought Forecasting Using Neural Networks, Wavelet Neural Networks, and Support Vector Regression

Department of Bioresource Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, McGill University, QC, Canada H9X 3V9

Received 24 February 2012; Accepted 18 July 2012

Academic Editor: Quek Hiok Chai

Copyright © 2012 A. Belayneh and J. Adamowski. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Drought forecasts can be an effective tool for mitigating some of the more adverse consequences of drought. Data-driven models are suitable forecasting tools due to their rapid development times, as well as minimal information requirements compared to the information required for physically based models. This study compares the effectiveness of three data-driven models for forecasting drought conditions in the Awash River Basin of Ethiopia. The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) is forecast and compared using artificial neural networks (ANNs), support vector regression (SVR), and wavelet neural networks (WN). SPI 3 and SPI 12 were the SPI values that were forecasted. These SPI values were forecast over lead times of 1 and 6 months. The performance of all the models was compared using RMSE, MAE, and . The forecast results indicate that the coupled wavelet neural network (WN) models were the best models for forecasting SPI values over multiple lead times in the Awash River Basin in Ethiopia.