Towards Direct Simulation of Future Tropical Cyclone Statistics in a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model

Table 3

Average number of tropical storms with wind in excess of 33 knots during the August–November period simulated in fvCAM2.2 as shown in Figure 9. Percent change is shown in the 4th column relative to the 1990–1999 ensemble average. Student’s test statistic, calculated with 14 degrees of freedom is shown in the 5th column. The last column shows the level of confidence for the rejection of the null hypothesis of no change in the number of tropical storms.

	Present no. of tropical storms	Future no. of tropical storms	Percent change	Student’s test statistic	Statistical significance of change
Global	62.7	87.7	40%	11.5	>99.9%
Northern Hemisphere	51.9	71.6	38%	11.5	>99.9%
Southern Hemisphere	10.7	16.1	51%	4.7	>99.9%
North Pacific	40.0	51.2	28%	7.5	>99.9%
North Atlantic	5.1	8.6	70%	5.6	>99.9%
South Pacific	0.7	2.6	250%	4.9	>99.9%
Indian Ocean	12.5	18.3	47%	5.0	>99.9%