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BioMed Research International
Volume 2013 (2013), Article ID 413260, 18 pages
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/413260
Research Article

Modelling HIV/AIDS Epidemic among Men Who Have Sex with Men in China

1Department of Applied Mathematics, School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China
2Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 210029, China
3National Center for AIDS/STD Prevention and Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 155 Changbai Road, Beijing 102206, China

Received 9 April 2013; Accepted 19 July 2013

Academic Editor: Lucia Lopalco

Copyright © 2013 Xiaodan Sun et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

A compartmental model with antiviral therapy was proposed to identify the important factors that influence HIV infection among gay men in China and suggest some effective control strategies. We proved that the disease will be eradicated if the reproduction number is less than one. Based on the number of annual reported HIV/AIDS among MSM we used the Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) simulation to estimate the unknown parameters. We estimated a mean reproduction number of 3.88 (95% CI: 3.69–4.07). The estimation results showed that there were a higher transmission rate and a lower diagnose rate among MSM than those for another high-risk population. We compared the current treatment policy and immediate therapy once people are diagnosed with HIV, and numerical studies indicated that immediate antiviral therapy would lead to few HIV new infections conditional upon relatively low infectiousness; otherwise the current treatment policy would result in low HIV new infection. Further, increasing treatment coverage rate may lead to decline in HIV new infections and be beneficial to disease control, depending on the infectiousness of the infected individuals with antiviral therapy. The finding suggested that treatment efficacy (directly affecting infectiousness), behavior changes, and interventions greatly affect HIV new infection; strengthening intensity will contribute to the disease control.