Stochastic Methodology for the Study of an Epidemic Decay Phase, Based on a Branching Model
Figure 2
Figure 2(a) 10 simulations of initialized by , and comparison with the observations on the period 1998–2011. Figure 2(b) 5 simulations of initialized by . Figures 2(c) and 2(d) prediction, based on 1000 simulations of the process of the yearly incidences of cases (resp., infected cattle) from 2012. of the trajectories remain in the band delimited by the blue dotted lines. All the simulations are done with the infection parameter .
