FLUed: A Novel Four-Layer Model for Simulating Epidemic Dynamics and Assessing Intervention Policies
Table 2
Observation index values according to different policy activation scenarios during swine-origin H1N1 influenza A outbreak in Taipei.
Activation time
Evaluation index
Transmission rate reduction (%)
0%9
30%
50%
70%
90%
(a) Scenario number 1 Pre-virus appearance
Total cases
1,784,044
1,407,752
1,108,520
485,761
8
New infected cases at epidemic curve peak
171,329
113,898
64,926
12,231
8
Week number of epidemic curve peak
20
26
36
77
(New infected cases at epidemic curve peak/total cases of basic epidemic curve)
9.60%
6.38%
3.64%
0.69%
0%
(Total cases of epidemic curve/total cases of basic epidemic curve)
100%
78.90%
62.14%
27.23%
0%
(b) Scenario number 2 After 50 cases are diagnosed
Total cases
1,784,044
1,409,827
1,108,794
487,425
855
New infected cases at epidemic curve peak
171,329
114,120
65,235
12,468
155
Week number of epidemic curve peak
20
24
30
51
7
(New infected cases at epidemic curve peak/total cases of basic epidemic curve)
9.60%
6.40%
3.66%
0.70%
0%
(Total cases of epidemic curve/total cases of basic epidemic curve)
100%
79.02%
62.15%
27.32%
0.05%
(c) Scenario number 3 After 100 cases are diagnosed
Total cases
1,784,044
1,410,263
1,108,993
488,900
1,991
New infected cases at epidemic curve peak
171,329
113,532
65,314
12,604
349
Week number of epidemic curve peak
20
24
29
47
8
(New infected cases at epidemic curve peak/total cases of basic epidemic curve)
9.60%
6.36%
3.66%
0.71%
0%
(Total cases of epidemic curve/total cases of basic epidemic curve)
100%
79.05%
62.16%
27.40%
0.11%
(d) Scenario number 4 After 200 cases are diagnosed
Total cases
1,784,044
1,410,782
1,109,355
491,563
4,599
New infected cases at epidemic curve peak
171,329
114,191
65,442
12,883
818
Week number of epidemic curve peak
20
23
28
42
9
(New infected cases at epidemic curve peak/total cases of basic epidemic curve)
9.60%
6.40%
3.67%
0.72%
0%
(Total cases of epidemic curve/total cases of basic epidemic curve)
100%
79.08%
62.18%
27.55%
0.26%
(e) Scenario number 5 After 400 cases are diagnosed
Total cases
1,784,044
1,411,273
1,109,893
496,246
10,000
New infected cases at epidemic curve peak
171,329
114,185
65,669
13,408
1,680
Week number of epidemic curve peak
20
23
27
38
10
(New infected cases at epidemic curve peak/total cases of basic epidemic curve)
9.60%
6.40%
3.68%
0.75%
0%
(Total cases of epidemic curve/total cases of basic epidemic curve)
100%
79.11%
62.21%
27.82%
0.56%
In Tables 2 and 3, the “0%” subcolumn in the “Transmission rate reduction” column refers to the baseline scenario—that is, in the absence of any intervention policies for comparison purposes. To clarify the table, we have retained the experiment results in Scenario #1.
